Capital Markets — Key Metrics at a Glance
FY26–FY30 projection
~US$500 billion
Direct equity participation
Low penetration vs potential
Up from 21 Mn in FY13
Up from <₹1 L Cr in FY19
Consistent since early FY26
Expected FY26–FY30
Overview
India's capital markets revenue pool is projected to grow at a 16% CAGR between FY26 and FY30, driven by rising household financialisation, deeper equity participation and expanding investment products, according to Macquarie Research.
India's household savings pool provides significant room for further capital-market penetration. Indians save around ₹44.19 lakh crore (US$500 billion) annually in financial assets, with nearly half held in cash and deposits.
Key Highlights
| Indicator | Current / Projected Level |
|---|---|
| Capital markets revenue pool CAGR, FY26–FY30 | 16% |
| Annual financial-asset savings | ₹44.19 lakh crore |
| Population active on NSE | ~3% |
| Population owning mutual funds | ~4% |
| Demat accounts, FY13 | 21 million |
| Demat accounts, FY26 | ~225 million |
| Annual SIP inflows, FY19 | <₹1 lakh crore |
| Annual SIP inflows, FY26 | ~₹3.5 lakh crore |
| Monthly SIP inflows | >₹30,000 crore |
| Stock-exchange revenue growth, FY26–FY30 | ~13% CAGR |
| Transaction revenue growth | ~12% CAGR |
| Non-transaction revenue growth | ~15% CAGR |
Rising Household Financialisation
Household savings are increasingly becoming an important source of capital-market growth. India's annual financial-asset savings are estimated at approximately ₹44.19 lakh crore, with around half currently held in cash and deposits.
Macquarie Research highlighted several factors expanding the addressable investment pool:
Structural Growth Drivers
- Rising GDP per capita
- Formalisation of household savings
- Increasing participation in financial assets
- Deeper equity-market participation
- Expansion of investment products
Current Participation Levels
- ~3% of population active on the NSE
- ~4% of population owns mutual funds
- Nearly 50% of savings still in cash & deposits
- Significant headroom for further penetration
- Broad addressable base yet to be tapped
Demat Accounts Signal Rising Retail Participation
The expansion of demat accounts illustrates the growth in retail participation. The increase in demat accounts, together with growing SIP participation, points to a broader shift toward financial-market participation.
SIPs Become a Major Investment Channel
Systematic Investment Plans have also expanded significantly. Annual SIP inflows increased from below ₹1 lakh crore in FY19 to approximately ₹3.5 lakh crore in FY26.
Monthly SIP inflows have remained above ₹30,000 crore since early FY26, highlighting the growing role of systematic investing in household financial participation.
Stock Exchange Revenue Outlook
Macquarie expects stock exchanges to record approximately 13% annual revenue growth through FY30, with diversification across both transaction and non-transaction revenue streams.
| Revenue Segment | Expected Annual Growth |
|---|---|
| Total exchange revenue | ~13% |
| Transaction revenue | ~12% |
| Non-transaction revenue | ~15% |
The report expects the increasing contribution of the following revenue segments to diversify exchange revenues, reducing dependence on trading volumes and transaction activity:
Market Data
Growing demand for market data feeds across institutions, analytics firms and retail platforms.
Connectivity
Co-location, bandwidth and connectivity services supporting trading infrastructure.
Listings
New equity listings, bond listings and other issuance-related revenue streams.
Index-Linked Products
Index licensing, passive products and derivative benchmarks driving recurring revenue.
Transaction Flows
Core trading activity continuing to grow at approximately 12% annually through FY30.
Diversified Mix
Combined revenue model reducing reliance on volumes and transaction activity alone.
Near-Term Impact of the Closing Auction System
Macquarie also highlighted a potential near-term disruption from the Closing Auction System. According to the report, its impact could persist for approximately two quarters as market participants adjust to the changes.
Areas Potentially Affected
- Equity volumes
- Derivatives activity
- Margin-trading volumes
- Market liquidity
- Trading strategies
Duration & Context
- Expected to persist for ~2 quarters
- Driven by participant adjustment period
- Near-term rather than structural effect
- Does not alter broader growth outlook
- Structural capital-market story remains intact
Why This Matters
India's capital-market opportunity extends beyond increasing trading volumes. The expansion of the household financial-asset pool, growth in demat accounts and rising SIP flows indicate a broader financialisation of household savings.
For exchanges and market-infrastructure providers, this creates opportunities to develop revenue streams beyond traditional transaction-based activities—spanning market data, connectivity, listings and index-linked products.
💡 FinIntelHub Insight
From Deposits to Markets: The Structural Financialisation of India's Savings
India's capital-market growth story is increasingly being driven by the transition of household savings from traditional cash and deposits toward market-linked financial products. The combination of ~225 million demat accounts, ~₹3.5 lakh crore annual SIP inflows and relatively low overall population participation highlights both the scale already achieved and the potential expansion of the addressable investor base.
Macquarie's projections point toward continued growth in the capital-markets revenue pool through FY30, while the increasing contribution of data, connectivity, listings and index-linked products could make exchange revenues more diversified and less dependent on transaction volumes alone.
Source: Macquarie Research, as cited in the source material.
Disclaimer: FinIntelHub is not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information presented. The data and information are compiled from secondary sources and are provided for informational and research purposes only.